Y2K: Self-Fulfilling Hysteria?
Donald A. Coggan, PE
Special Edition
MONTREAL, October 8, 1998 - It started about two years ago. You couldn't look anywhere without seeing something about this thing called the Internet. Now it's Y2K. Some said all the talk about the Internet was just a lot of hype. With Y2K, they're saying it's hysteria. And there is hysteria. Fortunately, it's nicely balanced by complacency. Some would even say denial. Our bumper-sticker culture encourages us to polarize issues. In fact, there's a whole continuum of attitudes toward Y2K. (Yes, Y2K is a thing with attitude!) It's as irresponsible to say the Y2K bug will bring the world to its knees as it is to say there is no problem. There is indeed a problem - a very complex one. Acknowledging this is the first step. Working rationally on solutions comes next. Can anyone predict with any certainty what will happen after the clock strikes 00:01 on January 1, 2000? Of course not. It's too complex an issue. Things WILL happen though. And the best way of dealing with them is to "plan for the worst and hope for the best." This is an easy approach to understand because we already have experience. We've all prepared ourselves to varying degrees for future events such as: hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, military aggression, unemployment, and retirement. We do it individually and as a society through governments and companies. How each of us prepares for the Y2K event is an individual thing. During the Cold War, there are those who built bomb shelters and those who did not. Today, there are those who are gearing up for an emergency Y2K survival scenario and those who are not. The Y2K problem is complex. It's not just that computers are used everywhere in our modern society. It's that they are so interconnected. It's possible for a single non-y2k-compliant computer to act like a spark setting ablaze the entire network it's a part of. But we don't really know to what extent such firestorms will occur. Because they are a possibility though, people will talk and obsess about them to the same degree they will about any possible disaster. Although there's a possibility of falures, the fact is we don't really know to what extent: - banks will charge or pay improper interest,
- electrical brown-outs or black-outs will occur,
- air traffic control systems will fail,
- hospital emergency care systems will fail,
- communications networks will degrade, or
- elevators will stall between floors.
As with any potential emergency situation, there are growing numbers of suppliers of survival gear. Naturally, the more hysteria, the greater their sales. Are they contributing to the hysteria? Probably, but not any more than the companies selling you insurance. Don't they paint a pretty grim picture to get you to buy? We have to be vigilant though, because it's the hysteria itself that could cause major problems, such as: - a run on the banks in the last few months of 1999,
- depletion of canned- and dried-food stocks,
- depletion of emergency generators,
- elevated absenteeism in the workplace,
- selling out of system-dependent urban properties, and
- buying up of autonomous country properties.
We might even see people avoiding Times Square for the passage ritual into the Year 2000! So what is one to do? The best we can do is prepare for the "worst" according to our individual and group capacities. As a minimum, we should consider: - stocking up on emergency food supplies,
- building up an emergency supply of drinking water,
- maintaining a stash of negotiable currency,
- getting equipped with alternative heating systems.
- adding to the home emergency medical kit, and
- forming informal local readiness groups.
Here's what not to do: - deny that a problem exists,
- wait for someone else to do everything for you, and
- consciously add to any existing hysteria.
Of course, if you have some entrepreneur in you, now would be a good time to start a business selling survival goods and gear.
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Throughout nearly 30 years of business starting in 1967, Don Coggan has held positions ranging from sales engineer to general manager to business owner. Since early 1996, he has been providing bilingual Internet business consulting services across the US and Canada to clients in the private and public sectors. He can be reached by e-mail at don@naftatrade.com.
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